What does the Cory Stillman trade mean for Toronto?

Only one game in the league tonight so there wasn't going to much to update here anyway, but Phoenix lost to Dallas by a goal, so literally nothing changes except for me adjusting two numbers slightly. Convenient, but boring.

1.  LAK 58 GP, 24 W, 49 PTS, -25 DIFF
2.  TBL 56 GP, 23 W, 52 PTS, -24 DIFF
3.  CHI 55 GP, 24 W, 54 PTS, -10 DIFF
4.  TOR 57 GP, 23 W, 55 PTS, -27 DIFF
5.  EDM 57 GP, 25 W, 55 PTS, -19 DIFF
6.  NYI 56 GP, 24 W, 55 PTS, -30 DIFF
7.  STL 54 GP, 24 W, 56 PTS, -19 DIFF
8.  FLA 58 GP, 26 W, 57 PTS, -8 DIFF
9.  ATL 58 GP, 27 W, 58 PTS, -29 DIFF
10. CAR 58 GP, 27 W, 58 PTS, -17 DIFF
11. PHO 57 GP, 28 W, 60 PTS, -4 DIFF
12. BUF 55 GP, 26 W, 60 PTS, +9 DIFF
13. CLB 58 GP, 26 W, 61 PTS, -7 DIFF
14. VAN 57 GP, 28 W, 63 PTS, +7 DIFF

But we value-add here at Bring Back Potvin, so you're going to get a bleary-eyed, number-filled blog. Never say I don't give you what you pay for.

Jared called me at work today and informed me that the first trade of this year's deadline season had taken place: Ottawa sending Joe Corvo and Patrick Eaves to the Hurricanes for Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore. I have taken the liberty of breaking that up into two separate trades: Commodore for Corvo (a defensive defenseman from a team that needs an offensive defenseman for an offensive defenseman from a team that needs a defensive defenseman) and Stillman for Eaves. The second one is the part that is of more interest here; ideally, the Leafs aren't going to be affected by the trade itself in terms of on-ice impact because they're going to start losing more games, and soon. Ideally.

Anyway... Cory Stillman. Nice player, albeit aging and broken down. The last time he played 45 or more games and didn't score 20+ goals was 96-97. He's working on a cheap contract ($1.75 million) and can walk in the summer as a free agent. At age 34, he's breaking down, and can barely skate at this point, but he's still piling up traditional counting stats and might finally crack the 30 goal mark this season. He has two Stanley Cups rings and will add a valuable secondary scoring presence to the Senators.

Stillman has become very important to the entire NHL today, but especially to the Leafs (maybe not especially, but for our intents and purposes it is, and that's what counts). That's because the market is always set with the first few trades of any given deadline season. If another big deal goes down tomorrow, the market is adjusted; but for now everything is based off of Cory Stillman (for forwards, anyway... although I'm not really sure how Commodore-for-Corvo sets the market for defensemen, other than you have to give quality to get quality at that position... but this is a unique situation where both teams had something the other needed that was of roughly equal value, so that swap meshed well. I can't imagine you're going to see many contending teams add extra defensive depth by giving up an equal defender). As of today, the market for a player like Cory Stillman (mid-30s, good offensive numbers, small cap hit, free agent at the end of the summer) is set at Patrick Eaves: a young forward who is two years removed from a 20 goal rookie season and was picked at the end of the vaunted 2003 draft's first round. This is a nice precedent to me, because I want to trade Darcy Tucker.

If you can think of someone who is more firmly on the 'trade Tucker' bandwagon than me, I'll be shocked. I like him but he's never been one of my favourites, and to get him, we had to trade Mike Johnson, who WAS one of my favourites. He was always a fun guy to have around, but when his contract came up last year, it was time: he, like Bryan McCabe, should have been sent out of town long before a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract was thrown his way. With a no-trade clause, no less. But here Tucker remains, and here the team circles the drain. The time to trade Darcy Tucker was last season, but that doesn't mean we can't do it this year, anyway. And I think we should start looking for a return comparable to Patrick Eaves.

At first glance, Tucker doesn't really seem to match up with Stillman, so there isn't much relevance to this comparison. They're roughly the same age (Tucker is a year and change younger), both seem like a pretty good bet to score 20 goals for you, but they don't really play the same style of hockey. Stillman is a deceptive scorer (so deceptive, in fact, that when asking around for people's thoughts on the trade and Stillman in general, I got a lot of "I have no idea how Stillman gets so many points, he's so slow and bad and never seems to be anywhere near the play"); Tucker is an agitator. Tucker is also not having a very good year, and Stillman's stats dwarf his (21G/25A/46P for Stillman, 9/8/17 for Tucker in six less games). Tucker has another three years and $9 million left on his contract, taking him to the age of 36. When today's trade first broke, I figured "well hey, maybe we'll get something better for Tucker than I was hoping", but I expected that an Eaves-type player would be a high ceiling on any type of Tucker return. I mean, he's not Cory Stillman.

Where it gets interesting is when you bring up Behind the Net stats. Looking at even-strength numbers (in a select few categories, because I know not everyone knows/uses/understands these stats, and I am only beginning to myself, so...) they're actually a lot more comparable than I thought:

TOI/60: Stillman 14.01, Tucker 11.61

GFON/60: Stillman 2.49, Tucker 2.21

GAON/60: Tucker 2.42, Stillman 2.65

Goals/60: Tucker 0.74, Stillman 0.70

First Assists/60: Tucker 0.63, Stillman 0.62

Second Assists/60: Stillman 0.70, Tucker 0.11

Some thoughts here: Stillman isn't NEARLY as productive as it looks based on his G/A/P numbers. You'd expect his GFON/GAON numbers to be higher than that, and he is actually getting less goals and first assists per 60 minutes of even-strength play than Tucker is (in 2.40 less minutes of EV ice-time, no less). Where Stillman kills Tucker is in secondary assists, which would seem to match up with my low-rent scouting reports of Stillman being a player who gets points despite being invisible.

Stillman also racks up a lot more points on the powerplay than Tucker. Stillman gets more ice time on the PP, and Tucker has been a PP bust this year, despite being pretty dependable in the past. Obviously, they're not the exact same player, but at least in terms of EV play, it's not really as far as you'd think. Plus, Tucker brings the bump-and-grind style that playoff teams (especially after the Ducks last year) covet, and he's under contract for another three seasons. If you're going to give up a recent first rounder for a player, wouldn't it be nice if you could actually keep him around for more than 20 games plus playoffs?

So maybe Stillman is a decent comp for Tucker, and maybe we can get a nice return on him yet. You'd have to think Tucker would fit on teams like Detroit, Dallas, and Vancouver, teams that need more offensive depth and are hoping for lengthy playoff runs AND have spare cap room for next year. I'm not sure, I haven't really looked into it. But our players aren't as worthless as we might think.

The Brett McLean Five-Point Special

You know, I considered watching the game last night. I've been itching for some hockey lately, I've liked watching the Panthers since the Pavel Bure trade, Toronto was coming off of a big win in a season where there haven't been many. Was I naive enough to think that doubling up Ottawa was going to kick the Maple Leafs into a playoff push? Of course not, but I thought that maybe they'd be up for playing a good hockey game.

I was wrong.

Thankfully, much like the night before when I had the option of watching The Baby-Sitters Club on television but decided to stay in bed, I passed. Judging by the 8-0 score, the hat-trick (and assist) from Richard Zednik and a five point night from Brett "What the FUCK?!" McLean, and Andrew Raycroft's magnificent 4 GA/7 SV/31 MIN stat-line... I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

There's not many positive things you can say about this team these days. Actually, I've narrowed it down to two:

1) Andy Wozniewski was waived today. Yeah, you can look at this as a "Bryan McCabe is finally back" moment, or you can look at it as "Wozniewski is finally off the damn team". I'm going with the second one. It's cloudy outside, but I could have sworn I could see sun when I read about this.

2) The real big wins for this team are the big losses. In which case, HELL FUCKING YEAH WHAT A GAME

Really, since Tampa and LA won (not to mention Edmonton the night before), and since we were somehow closing in on the Panthers, this just helps solidify a top pick in the draft. While I haven't lost my faith that this team to completely fuck this up and end up in 9th place yet again, every loss brings us closer to that not happening.

***

Steve and I have discussed what we think Fletcher needs to do in the next 20 days to right this ship, or at least cover the sinkholes and give the next guy buckets to bail the water out. Steve is very much a "trade Sundin" guy, believing the first priority should be to dump Mats to the highest bidder. I don't think this is necessarily an anti-Sundin sentiment. I know that Steve thinks the key is to get rid of Sundin so that those who are left behind are so demoralized that they only play worse, securing a higher draft pick. I suppose there's merit to that idea, except that I really don't think this team can get much worse. This is probably easy to write after last night's game, but they already play like shit with Sundin in the lineup. This just isn't a good team.

Me? Well, my stance was defined a couple of posts ago. That said, I'm more open to a Sundin deal now, and have singled out a couple of teams I wouldn't mind doing business with. The problem there is that I've been watching Mats toil for the blue and white for as long as I've been a hockey fan, and while I've never really considered myself a huge Mats guy (I've always liked him and thought he was one of the best players in the league, but it's not like I'm naming my hockey blog after him or anything), the thought of him in a different lineup makes me rather sad. So, I tend to want a lot for him, the kind of return that probably will have people laugh and think of me as a traditional message board Leafs fan who ridiculously overvalues Toronto players. Whatever. Here's what I've looked at around the league and decided I would be content with as a return on Sundin:

From Anaheim: Bobby Ryan and the Oilers' first pick (basically two top five picks in return for giving Mats his best shot at a Cup and probably a mortal lock that he'd come back in July).

From Carolina: Tim Gleason and two of Andrew Ladd, Brandon Sutter, and Carolina's first pick this year (probably a lot and this depends on the Hurricanes sticking around the playoff hunt and Rutherford not really thinking things through, but I like Gleason and think he'd be a good fit with the direction the blueline should be headed, plus you get a player, prospect, and a pick in the teens, or at least some combination of those three).

From Calgary: Alex Tanguay (yeah, I'd do this straight-up... doing this trade helps Calgary because it clears money off the books for next season, allowing them to try to keep Huselius/Langkow since you know Sundin wouldn't stay, it gives Sundin a decent shot at winning the Cup, and the public sentiment seems to have turned against Tanguay in Calgary. Here, it gives us a great, top-flight forward locked up - yeah, he's another big ticket guy, but Tanguay is the type you WANT to be dropping 5.75 million on. Plus, you get Sundin back next year, and you have two-thirds of a great top line already).

Of course, none of these are realistic and it's probably more likely we'll get an abortion of a return like the one suggested by Pierre LeBrun last week (Sundin and a one year extension to Detroit for Hudler, an '08 first, and an '09 second... the picks are worthless because Detroit always finishes so high, and I don't think Hudler is ever going to be anything special) and that I will be angry.

Anyway, I still don't think you need to trade Sundin, and I've started to sway myself on not dumping Pavel Kubina for whatever you can find. When Steve and I were discussing this, he asked me that if I can put together such a good argument for how he's valuable, then why not just keep him? And I really didn't have a good answer to that. I'd still move him if you can get something back, because he does have a large contract, but it's only for another two seasons and I'm no longer opposed to keeping him. A similar thing is happening with me and Jason Blake. His contract is horrible, but a 20 goal, 50 point guy has some value to a team, and that's assuming he doesn't rebound slightly. Past that, what are the options? Again, if you can find someone to take him, do it, but why buy him out and eat a 2 million cap hit for the next EIGHT years? $4 million sadly isn't bad for a top six guy and Blake is one of those. He just needs to be better for next year. But I mean, it could be worse... he could be Dustin Penner.

McCabe, Tucker, and Raycroft NEED to be off this team by next season. I think Gill will get moved at the deadline, and Bell will probably get bought out. I think Tucker would work well in Edmonton's lineup, but a) why would they try to add a veteran at the deadline? and b) why would Tucker waive his no-trade clause to go to another rebuilding team? Maybe it's just my unbridled desire to get Rob Schremp that's giving me these thoughts.

I think we might start doing regular game-day topics around here like you see on a real hockey blog. Who knows?

Oh and Steve, no, I am not going to stop ridiculously over-labelling my posts.

I can only hope Darren Dreger is not lying to me

But, given my past issues with him, not to mention his horrid rumour-mongering and past career decisions, I don't hold out much hope.

Bryan McCabe still has four years remaining on a deal that averages $5.75
million per year. He also has a "no movement" clause which some suggest he
would waive for one team, the New York Islanders. If the Islanders can't
re-sign Ryan Smyth or Jason Blake, they'll need to make a splash. The
Maple Leafs won't initiate a discussion, but with 8 defensemen soon to be under
contract they might listen. Freeing up valuable cap space to enable the
Leafs to be a contender for top free agent players is very appealing. This is a
distinct possibility.

Now, McCabe certainly isn't, you know, TERRIBLE or anything, but I've never approved of his contract. For the caliber of defenseman he is (you know, worse than the much more affordable Kaberle), I want him either a lot cheaper or not on my team. I like the guy and all, but I'm not comfortable with Bryan McCabe the player for damn near six million a year. Like Dreger mentions, there's a lot of benefit to the team by trying to dump McCabe. We free up a ton of cap room and have the opportunity to pick up more players, such as a better defenseman (I'll take either Timonen or Hannan, thank you very much).

The bottom line, to me, is that without his breakout offensive first-half of the year last season, McCabe isn't staring at all that money because he not only isn't good enough defensively or consistent enough offensively (i.e. just not fucking good enough) for that kind of money, but he's not nearly the crowd favourite that other guys who've gotten ridiculous contracts (Tucker's $3 million, Domi's $1.5 million back in the day) are. The only reason he has that contract is because he has a big shot and was picking up lots of points on the powerplay at the start of 2005-06. He petered out after his injury, and he hasn't been the same "league leader" player since... well, no shit. He never was. Then again, when have the fucking Toronto Maple Leafs ever been known for their fiscal sanity?

I'm in favour of moving him, but I want as much as possible in return. He's not a terrible player, just really overpaid. And really stupid. Who can forget his pre-lockout comments? Yeah Bry, I hope you're able to get by now that Toronto's paying you out the ass. Fucking 'tard.